Nations League: Italy VS Belgium - Prediction

Italy and Belgium will begin their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaigns on Friday night when they meet at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. The two European heavyweights are in League A, Group 1, alongside France and Türkiye, making a positive start particularly valuable in a difficult group.

For Italy, this match marks another new beginning. Roberto Mancini is back in charge of the national team for a second spell and has immediately started rebuilding the squad after Italy failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. Mancini has selected an expanded squad featuring nine uncapped players, showing his willingness to give younger players an opportunity. At the same time, experienced names such as Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali remain important parts of the team.

Belgium arrive in Rome in a somewhat different position. They enjoyed a much better summer than Italy, reaching the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup before losing 2-1 to eventual champions Spain. Their tournament included impressive wins over the United States, Senegal and New Zealand. However, Belgium have also changed their manager, with Mark van Bommel beginning his spell in charge of the Red Devils.

Team News

Italy will not be at full strength against Belgium. Alessandro Bastoni is suspended, while Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante are unavailable through injury. Cristante was replaced in the squad by Samuele Ricci. Mancini therefore has some difficult decisions to make, particularly in defence. Italy are expected to use a 4-3-3 system, with Barella and Tonali providing experience in midfield and several younger players competing for attacking positions.

Unlike Italy's more extensive rebuild, Belgium have retained much of the squad that competed at the World Cup. Twenty players from that tournament squad remain involved, although several important names will be missing in Rome. Thibaut Courtois is sitting out this Nations League campaign, while Jérémy Doku, Amadou Onana and Leandro Trossard are unavailable through injury. Axel Witsel has also retired from international football.

Possible Lineup for Italy:

Donnarumma; Kayode, Mancini, Scalvini, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Inacio, P. Esposito, Raspadori

Possible Lineup for Belgium:

Lammens; Castagne, De Winter, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Lavia; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Godts; Lukaku

Prediction: Italy 1-1 Belgium

There is plenty of uncertainty because both teams are starting under new managers. Belgium come into the game with the stronger recent tournament record. Their last six matches include victories over New Zealand, Senegal, and the United States, before their 2-1 World Cup quarter-final defeat against Spain. Italy's recent results have been more mixed. They defeated Northern Ireland 2-0 in their World Cup playoff semi-final before their qualification campaign ended against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, Italy have recorded consecutive 1-0 friendly victories over Luxembourg and Greece. Home advantage could help Italy, but their reshaped defence will face a difficult test against De Bruyne, Lukaku and Belgium's other attacking options.

Betfair Odds

Italy: 2.15

Draw: 3.50

Belgium: 3.30

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