Who are the favourites to win the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League?

UEFA introduced the Nations League to reduce the number of international friendlies and give European national teams more competitive matches against countries of a similar level. Instead of filling international breaks with friendlies, teams compete in a league system with promotion and relegation. The strongest countries play in League A, while the remaining nations are divided between Leagues B, C and D.

This season, 54 UEFA national teams are taking part. Leagues A, B and C each contain four groups of four teams, while League D contains two groups of three. With many of Europe’s strongest national teams involved, the battle for the Nations League trophy should be highly competitive. The outright betting market currently has Spain and France at the front, followed closely by Germany and England. Odds vary between bookmakers and will continue to change throughout the tournament.

Spain

Spain enter the competition among the leading favourites. There are good reasons for the market's confidence. Spain are the reigning world champions and have an excellent recent record in the Nations League. They won the competition in 2023 and reached another final in 2025. However, their path through the league phase will not be straightforward. Spain have been drawn in Group A3 alongside England, Croatia and Czechia, making it one of the strongest groups in the competition.

France

France are another major name near the top of the market. Recent prices have ranged from around 11/4 to 4/1, with some bookmakers actually placing France ahead of Spain.

The 2021 Nations League champions begin a new era under Zinédine Zidane, and their squad contains plenty of attacking talent. They have been placed in Group A1 with Italy, Belgium and Türkiye, so France will be tested immediately. One of the standout early fixtures is Belgium against France on September 28.

Germany and England

There is very little separating Germany and England in the current market.Germany begin a new chapter under Jurgen Klopp and face the Netherlands, Serbia and Greece in Group A2. Their opening encounter with the Netherlands on September 24 will provide an early indication of how quickly the team is adapting to its new coach.

England, meanwhile, have returned to League A after earning promotion in the previous Nations League campaign. Thomas Tuchel's side have been handed a difficult group and begin their campaign with a huge match against Spain at Wembley on September 26.

What about Portugal?

Portugal should not be overlooked. They are the defending Nations League champions and are currently priced further behind the main group of favourites, at roughly 9/1 to 10/1 in recent markets.

Portugal are in Group A4 alongside Denmark, Norway and Wales. Norway could make that group particularly interesting, with Erling Haaland entering the tournament as the Nations League's all-time leading scorer with 19 goals.

Based purely on the current betting market, therefore, Spain and France form the leading pair, with Germany and England close behind and defending champions Portugal among the other prominent contenders. With six group matches followed by two-legged quarter-finals, however, the outright picture could change considerably as the tournament develops.